LHO

The Ledger · Entry 008 · Science

Protein structure prediction from sequence

Ceded to machinesSince 2020Criterion performanceLast reviewed 2026-08-17

Event

AlphaFold 2 reaches a median GDT_TS of 92.4 across targets at CASP14, close to experimental accuracy on most of them.

CASP is a blind assessment: sequences are released, structures are withheld until predictions are in. What was ceded is single-chain structure prediction from sequence at a level the field had pursued for fifty years; the AlphaFold Protein Structure Database then released predictions for most known proteins. Not ceded: experimental determination remains the ground truth, and complexes, dynamics, disordered regions and the effect of point mutations are still open problems. The 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry recognized the people who built the method.